tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 29, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
treasuries or selloff in equities? >> we continue to see a lot of money rush into treasuries. you look at bnd, it's as broad trackingn get, biotech other sectors, also down. joe: it is another one of those days where it is red, but no panic. scarlet: it is worth noting that volume is picked up a little bit. you do tend to see that on down days. it is usually lighter than average when you have a melt up. romaine: let's get more analysis with our market reporters. abigail: i'm watching what so many of us are watching, bonds. the 10 year yield, earlier today, we did have a rally for bonds rallying by about five
basis points. downe day has progressed, just one basis point. the big rally. while a 10 year yield from a technical standpoint is confirmed to go back below 2%, this chart does suggest a could be a reprieve ahead. the reason it is confirmed to go down lower, we have a debt crunch that has been reliable in the past. wee a look at the fact that have a down trend the rsi in oversold territory. if that starts to move higher, we might see the 10 year yield backup to its 50 year average. maybe if that happens, it will give the equity market a little bit of relief even in the near term. to sarah's point earlier, kind of the oddity of what we are seeing, i want to add, this is very much not your slightly older brother's trade war market what we have here, essentially the ratio on the bottom, the
msci all country world index. since may 3, essentially the last trading day since we had trump's weekend tweets that re-escalated the trade war, we have essentially had u.s. stocks perform in line with global stocks to --stocks. up, sph-share, e.m. all y down. that combination has only happened probably a dozen times in the past five years. two of those are today and yesterday. i think what we have here is almost a restart of what we were seeing before the trade war. global stocks outperforming u.s. on a winning streak. >> i spoken little bit earlier today about the retail bloodbath we have seen from earnings. it looks like there could be some more pain on the way.
a number of retailers report earnings tomorrow. cosco, cap, burlington stores. they will be slumping into those reports. surprisingly, the stock of some 30%. 29ay is its worst day since -- of 2019. a downgrade from buy to hold, saying the stock could be fully valued. the downgrade really is more a reflection that investors should perhaps stop accumulating shares rather than any idea of what we might hear about the last quarter. elsewhere, the focus is going to be on sales and also overcome what seems to be a decline in spending. cap, investors and analysts to looking for news. and its brand old navy. old navy expected to be spun off by gap later this year.
joe: still with us, ben from thornburg investment management. an, the trade war from equity perspective, is there a deal priced in? a lot of people say, we still think there will be a deal in q3 or whatever. what do you think the market is expecting? war should have happened a long time ago. i don't think the market has priced in. the negotiations between the u.s. and china, will we be able to strike a deal that is good for both parties or will it be bad for both parties? joe: you say it is good that is happening, why do you say that? the economic scorecard. china is exporting $540 billion to the u.s.. the u.s. is exporting $120
billion to china. i think china has a lot more to lose in the economic trade war -- than uss -- stanley the u.s. has. i have a colleague who went to texas, some of trump country. this is a chinese national calling. his comment was, you know what, we have it much better in china. a large part of the u.s. income distribution actually overlaps with a lot of the chinese distribution as well. they've been growing much faster than us. i think a reasonable outcome would be if the u.s. growth ticked up by 0.25% and chinese growth ticked down by 0.25%. romaine: coming out of this, out of this trade war, we still have sustained economic growth, we still have relatively high consumer confidence, inflation
is low, and -- and supposedly we have a supportive fed. we are testing the 200 day moving average on the s&p 500. what are investors trying to price in on the downside? ben: on the downside, stocks could be far more than 20% overvalued today. if we get into a situation of lose-lose on the trade war and chinese growth ghosted 5% and u.s. growth goes to 1.5%. >> we saw the dollar stronger today and it continues to move in that direction. if you do have a fed that is inclined to cut rates, that whole case for the dollar kind falls apart. sarah: we've been seeing this all year long. so when people have been looking for a weaker dollar. even though the fed is dovish, supportive, the fact of the matter is that it is kind of a domino effect. central banks across the world turned dovish as well.
that helps the dollar stay strong. we did see that kind of go away for a bit when trade started taking up. it seems like this narrative is back that the u.s. is stronger, if we are going to be dealing with a trade war, you might as well be in the u.s.. days, not whatht one would expect they were just looking at the headline numbers. sarah: not at all, especially when it comes to trade. get out of emerging markets, especially if you're looking at some of the emerging market indices because some of them are so heavily weighted to china. today, yesterday, we've seen a bit of a change. it is interesting. you think about today, yesterday. these seem like some of the heaviest selling days. they haven't match for match with what you would expect with people being worried about just rate. -- just trade. romaine: what is attractive
about emerging markets right now? much higher economic growth, they should have -- they do have better demographics. over time, you will have aliens of consumers moving out of low income into -- billions of consumers moving out of low income into middle income. that is a long-term strategic you. i think it makes sense to have a -- the u.s. is clearly late cycle. no output gap. rising debt levels. the emerging markets have gone through a much bumpier expansion over the last 10 years. pressure recession, brazil recession, china recession. the emerging markets still have a lot of economic firepower to keep their cycle growing at the same time the u.s. is going to be structurally slowing. scarlet: a little bit of a passing of the baton. ben kirby of thornburg investment management, thanks. and thanks to bloomberg's sarah
its dominance of rare-earth. flight -- the pimco ceo shares the worldview in a bloomberg exclusive. retail pain continues. abercrombie, canada goose tumble on disappointing results. we will hear from the tommy hilfiger owner later this hour. joe: we begin with another risk off day for the markets. havens.s fleeing to bloomberg macro strategist, the bond market, what does it mean, the inversion, the rally in the long and. -- the long end. market traditionally has done a pre-good job of
forecasting recession, but that doesn't mean that every bond -- none of the other major curves inverted. at how: when you look sustained this bond rally has been an overlay it with equities forgot to make, what do you take from the? -- from that? >> i have been stunned how much the bond market has rallied. it is almost like people are trying to talk themselves into a recession. i don't know if he actually said it that i wrote something today quoting supposedly vladimir lenin who said, "a lie told
often enough becomes the truth." repeatedde up quote often enough. cameron: pricing repeated frequently enough becomes the forecast. joe: from the fed's perspective, they look at the data -- scarlet was talking about it earlier. the data is not different appreciably today versus a week ago, a month ago, the beginning of the year. on the other hand, financial conditions -- the bond market obviously telling a bit of a different story. does that pressure them or do they say, look, the data is the data? cameron: financial conditions haven't tightened that much. not demonstrably. until you see a more meaningful tightening, i think the fed will and should sort of be looking through this. while the trajectory of the
economy is a little more uneven than over the last couple of years, on balance, the forecast for growth somewhere around trend of sort of 2% over the next few quarters seems kind of reasonable. it is not really clear why they should be overreacting, or reacting with rate cuts, which i think you would argue would be an overreaction. x had anjonathan ferro interview with people over at pimco. an idea that some new era of disruption, that this was sort of lead to a much more volatile environment heard do you see the volatility that we have now, do you think that can sort of be the trendline going forward for the next year or so, or do you think we will be in a more volatile era given everything that is happening. we are at the end of a
volatile cycle. whether they refer -- whether a recession start at the end of this year, next year, 2021, the cycle has been elongated. you would associate a late cycle environment, a sort of flat environment, as a higher volatility -- a period of higher volatility outcomes ironically enough, the thing that would really stoke volatility is the thing that the fed seems to really want, higher inflation. higher inflation is really sort of the grit in the gears of the economy. right now, we don't really have that fortunately. thanks, cameron. always glad to have you here. bloomberg macro strategist. turning to another story. beijing could use its dominance of rare-earth's to hit back in its trade war with washington area at stake are the critical supplies used to make everything from smartphones to wind
turbines. joining us on the phone is dan mccurdy, the founder of a strategic firm that advises companies on rare-earth and critical memory that critical minerals. given the concern now that china could use this as a weapon in the trade war, do u.s. companies, manufacturers, do they have some sort of viable alternative should china cut off the supply? are you there? dan: yes, i'm sorry. the supply chains at this point are so global that i'm not sure if it is uniform across the united states economy as to whether or not companies understand their exposure on the rare-earth. in some instances, they are buying component parts that have rare-earth in them. this would be a rude awakening to learn that these parts are not arriving, not coming at all.
coming in late because of changes that the chinese might make in order to signal to the u.s. that they have some leverage here outside of tariffs. just tariffs that can forth but on asymmetrical front and the trade war. another thing, rare-earth's aren't actually that rare in the sense that they don't only exist in a few places. they are just not mined in many places for economic reasons. it is very polluting to mine them. were china to really clamp down on the export, how long would it take for other current non-economical operations to get back in here? there are other deposits elsewhere. the chinese do dominate production at this point. that is something like 10% or
12% of global production. in the u.s., there are deposits. deposits in texas, and alaska, elsewhere. this is where the rare earth's are concentrated enough to make economic or commercial cents to extract them. they come out as a group and you have to separate one from the next. it is a very challenging endeavor. it is extremely complex. chinese, because of their dominance, have a lot of pricing power. they are kind of high barriers to entry. you'd have to have a strong signal from western governments that they understand these particular rare earth's to be strategic in nature and critical they are certainly used extensively in defense applications, not only on the
iphone, the smartphone i'm talking to you on now, where there are nine rare earths, but they are used in cruise missiles, the f-35. these rare earth elements are everywhere and i think the chinese have understood this is a signal where they can take different steps in the trade war that we have seen up to now. mcgroarty, thank you very much. coming up a retail bloodbath. canada goose, abercrombie falling. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is the retail company that owns the calvin klein and tommy hilfiger brands. it beat on first quarter revenue but cut its full-year revenue forecast. it also cut apparently it's four year eps forecast to a range of $10.30 -- $10.20 to $10.30 per share. joe: retail stocks getting taken to the cleaners today. luxury winter coat maker canada goose, casual retailer abercrombie & fitch, and capri, the parent company of her saatchi and michael coors, falling after weakened retail earnings. zach welcome sarah hall from washington. pretty ugly day across the board. is there a dominant theme across these or do these each have their own story? sarah: in some ways, they each had their own story.
we really did see trouble in apparel and home goods. we did not see that same trouble at the big box stores. walmart and target of had low out quarters. apparel, it was a tough place to be and i think we saw that show up again today. romaine: talk to me about canada goose. they gave a revenue forecast that i think said revenue is going to rise, yet the stock sold off 30% what is the issue? sarah: i think investors have gotten a little bit spoiled this company in recent years with its startup pace of growth. i still think it does have a pretty strong runway for growing going forward. it is just starting to open its own stores. it is just starting to penetrate international markets. i think investors got spooked by the slowdown in revenue. it is worth pointing out that the guidance, while it does only call for 20% growth, this
company has guided pretty conservatively. for 20%r, it had guided revenue growth. just in context for what we may see in the year ahead. joe: aren't people a little bit embarrassed to just wear the same jacket as everybody else? [laughter] sarah: i think canada goose still remains a status badge and a lot of markets. i think that is something that they risk. something that michael coors has seen. overexposure, putting their logo all over everything and ruining the cachet of their brand. as we saw today, they are still very much in recovery mode from that decision. all have tothing worry about, exposure. kors,e: on capri, michael whatever we are calling it now, i thought the whole point of these conglomerations was
supposed to insulate them from the swings or trends. when one was going bad, another would pick up the slack. sarah: i think it is too early days for that. they only just added saatchi to their portfolio it -- added vers ace to their portfolio at the end of last year. if you see these decelerating quarterly sales, i could see why investors are losing patience. it seems like, with this company, it's a game of whack-a-mole. this quarter, they were talking about trouble in their watch business, trouble in the shift toward a jewelry line. they also said they just did not have enough inventory in their signature classic handbag. too much fashion forward inventory that they had to markdown. these are retail 101 mistakes. joe: abercrombie & fitch, it stock is trading at the same level that it was trading at in .ike 1998
is this doomed to be hanging around, never glory days but never going away? sarah: i think what investors are reacting to today is the guidance. the results were not bad, seventh consecutive period of comparable sales gains. i think that was concerning to investors, snapping the streak of improved performance. the other thing, there guidance did not account for the possibility that we might see tariffs on an additional $300 billion -- 300 million -- an additional $300 billion worth of goods that might include clothes. we know that can really impact its margins in business going forward. to see that not account for in the guidance, i think that spooked investors. romaine: coming up, the big questions robert mueller left unanswered after making his first statement since his probe of president trump began two
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mark: house judiciary committee chairman jerrold nadler says it falls to congress to respond. the comments come hours after special counsel robert mueller delivered the first public comments about his pressure report that was issued last month. mueller says he was constitutionally barred with charging trump with a crime but said his report did not exonerate the president. >> although department of justice policy prevented special counsel from bringing criminal charges against the president, the special counsel has clearly demonstrated that president trump is lying.
he is lying about the special findings, lying about the testimony of key witnesses lying in saying that the special counsel found no obstruction and no collusion. 'srk: after mr. mueller statement, the president tweeted, "the case is closed the trump administration is escalating its battle with europe over the iranian nuclear deal. financial body to shield trade with iran. the treasury department warns that anyone associated with the institution could be barred from the u.s. financial system. the european union's top diplomat is urging kosovo and serbia to open up a dialogue following an armed raid on tuesday by kosovo police in the serb-dominated north of kosovo.
mogherini says what happened yesterday shows that, "the status quo is not -- notable, sustainable." >> they need to come back to the dialogue table and forward with the legally binding agreement that would make the full normalization of relations cap. mark: serbia put its troops on full alert after police arrested two dozen people and what they call an anti-organized crime operation in majority serb areas in kosovo. a strike about austerity measures is grounding flights and halting us and train lines in argentina. banks and many schools were closed today and ports were also shut hospitals offered only emergency services. the 24-hour strike organized by
labor unions is in protest of policies by the president including the firing of workers and the slashing of subsidies. argentines are also fed up with a stubborn recession, devaluation of the currency, and one of the world's highest inflation rates. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: special counsel robert mueller making his first public statement is probe of president trump began -- statement since his probe of president donald trump began. : after that investigation, if we had have, -- if we had confidence the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said so. we did not make a determination
as to whether the president did commit a crime. romaine: joining us is joshua green in washington. i want to start with something said, about the idea of the russian interference in our election. have we heard a response out of washington come out of any of the members of congress, with regards to how they will address that? joshua: not much of one. the response from the administration, from trump in particular, was tweeting "no collusion." the argument that the mueller report fully exonerated trump, which it didn't. that is the message and democrats of course responded by complaining and pointing to things in the report. ie of the reasons mueller think decided to speak out today was his consternation over the fact that more attention is not being paid in congress and in the administration to the security risks that were laid
out clearly in his report. view,'m curious, in your how this affects the politics of impeachment. we know there is a faction within the democratic party that really wants impeachment seedings to begin. -- impeachment proceedings to begin. nancy pelosi seems to be trying to hold it at bay. in today's press conference in which i didn't think mueller was particular subtle. does that make her life more difficult? joshua: in his own coded way, mueller essentially said, the reason i didn't indict trump in my report is because the constitution doesn't allow it and the proper place to do that is congress. nancy pelosi, take this hot potato and go do something with it. that is exactly what the subs tech -- what the subtext of his talk today was. as far as impeachment, it will put more pressure on pelosi and
democratic leadership to do something. you've seen already several democratic candidates come out and say we need to begin impeachment proceedings. two more today including cory booker came out and said, it looks like it is time for impeachment. the if you listen to what democratic leadership is saying, what jerry nadler said, they are calling trump a liar but they are still trying to slow walk impeachment. i think this makes the pressure democrats already under only in testified -- only intensify. romaine: the other things swirling around washington is the progress or lack of progress with regards to the trade dispute with china. what are you hearing? joshua: there doesn't seem to be any sense that trump is willing to back off. the hawks in and around his orbit seemed to be winning the internal battle right now. you have stephen bannon in the press talking about how trump needs to launch an economic war. i think the trait hawks feel
very much embolden in that trump continues to believe he can drive a harder line on china, humiliate the chinese in a sense, it leaf that this can lead to a better deal for the u.s. joe: overall, what is your view in the trajectory of trump's popularity? in terms of his confidence or position with all these things -- trade, mueller, impeachment, and so forth, as the reelection campaign heats up, how does the administration feel they are politically right now? joshua: i think they feel they are more or less in solid shape politically. certainly, there are concerns especially in some states in the upper midwest that trump won that are being affected by the trade war. but if you look at trump's approval rating, it has been steadily in a range of about 40 to 45% approval. it was when he was elect. there aren't any obvious signs
he's paying any kind of political price for the trade war. the stock market suffering a little bit no one seems to be bailing out of the republican coalition. you have one lone congressman comes out and says trump ought to be impeached. beyond that, just about everything from the mother report to the trade war. i think trump feels, as long as he is not getting any kind of pushback, as long as his numbers aren't sinking in the polls, as long as his beloved stock market average doesn't start sinking further, he can keep doing what he's doing, driving a hard bargain with china. joe: josh green writes about politics for bloomberg businessweek rate here from the magazine reporters and editors every saturday on bloomberg tv and radio. coming up, our exclusive interview with the pimco ceo and cio where they see major investment opportunities. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
joe: credit market concerns. pimco sounding the alarm bell. jonathan ferro spoke with manny roman and dan ivascyn from their office. >> across different areas of the market, but by far the most important area for us is at the credit markets. a decade and low yields. fort has been a great time weak issuers issue paper in europe. in the u.s., a very weak covenant. it has been good for them.
when things get worse, we think we have many opportunities to buy them cheap. week, high-yield credit, weak covenant and business which are sick nickel -- cyclical, of course. >> what was interesting about spending the day with you guys was how bearish you are about credit. manny: bond managers are always bearish, right? >> i have to say i've been struck by just how bearish the firm seems to be on corporate credit. subtle point. when we look at the world today, we see some near-term uncertainty that could be resolved. liquidity, central banks. within the credit sector, spreads can certainly go tighter over the short term. this is the single area of the financial markets that are prone to the downside when people's
views toward economic growth change. as primarily fixed-income managers, the most important task that we need to focus on is avoiding permanent capital impairment or the type of downside volatility that is likely to take place when people begin to fear credit risk again. >> you mentioned some of the excesses with risk over the past couple of years. some members of the team said maybe things could get more excessive. comparison used early on about now and the period of the mid to thousands. is that an historical pair -- historical parallel you are thinking about the echo manny: -- thinking about? manny: what you want to have is a framework where you take a value and you say, given a scenario, what are you going to do, what are the things you are going to buy, and make sure we do what we say we are going to do. in -- in take pride
times of turbulent markets, when equity goes down 50%, we need to perform. we are the building block portfolio where they want to count on us to perform in difficult markets. the last thing they need is for us to be lazy credit where the credit dropped 15 points and we have -- >> within the secular outlook, number five is the one that really stuck out at me. financial market vulnerabilities. the idea that the market longer absorbs the news, it makes the news. -- how concerned are you about this financial volatility? dan: we are quite concerned. this dynamic, it take some time to rear its head. but we are concerned about the markets being able to facilitate risk transfer when investor mindsets change. we saw a preview of that in the fourth quarter. as an active manager, you need
to be prepared for market overshooting. >> the keyword, active. i imagine the argument as a whole lot stronger than it once was. manny: i think we have a very different view than most. fixed income management is the good, and it is as simple as this. the structural reason in terms of how the indices are computed. reasons why some agent in a market have not economic reasons to buy paper. think of the central bank, think of insurance companies who have solvency issues. we think we can deliver consistently excess return of the benchmark. at active versus is somehowour job
easier than equity managers. i think we manage this. it is a lot of tools we can do. bondsany always has 200 outstanding. some trade in dollars, some trade euros. you can swap them back. there are so many things can do to enhance value and deliver better alpha. romaine: that was pimco's manny roman and dan ivascyn speaking exclusively with bloomberg. one of the more interesting things i found out of these interviews, they talk a lot about the credit market and how they saw a lot of risk there compared to what is being telegraphed in the market currently. joe: spreads are really narrow. there's a bunch of stuff going on. technological disruption, political disruption. you at the other side, the supply side, lots of debt out
there. romaine: i remember like 10 years ago, they came out with the whole new normal and now there is this new report out. joe: it is time for smart charts with abigail doolittle. ofgail, another day volatility for stocks. abigail: the s&p 500, finishing off the lows. let's look at everything happening for equities, especially the chip sector. we do have some near-term volatility as joe was talking about. the s&p 500 in the month of may down 6%, the worst down month of the year. you are taking a longer learn look with this weekly chart. this is going back about
five years on a weekly basis. yellow line is the 200 week moving average. it is interesting to me, at first glance, a secular trend. a little while since we turned over, dancing with the 200 day moving average. think we willdo break through. model, our 20 factor coming into today, for the first time in a while, there were more bare stocks than bullish stocks. i would not be surprised to see the 40 week moving average and 200 day moving average break to to downside i'm starting think a 50% retracement from the december lows to the may 1 highs. below 2800, confirmed
for your number of 2650. a correction, healthy. there could be some reason to think it might get worse. even though it is higher today, the stock nearly in a bear market, down from about 19%. dan: this is the chart that bothers me the most. white line being relative to the s&p 500. greenline being the s&p 500 itself. it topsds to happen is and bottoms. the relative performance tends to leave the s&p 500 itself. it topped out in late 2017 before the market topped out in january of 2018. the two intermediate in late summer. basis, bottoms in november ahead of the bottom for the s&p 500.
now were getting more of a pattern on the s&p 500 right ater the sox topped out on relative basis. you can get your clues by looking at the relationship between the sox and the s&p 500. you have to think about the s&p 500 breaking below the moving average. abigail: this is truly a valuable chart. you were talking about a 10% correction for the s&p 500. do you think it could worsen? again, this is relative. dan: can't rule it out. abigail: let's take a look at where we are positive, bonds. ief, greenline, breaking out to 52-week highs. we've been bullish on this for a while and continue to be bullish although it has gotten a little bit of ahead of itself in the near term. for a way tooking
play continued downside and yields, upside and treasuries, a way to do that is through real estate. white chart here, the real estate etf, giving you an opportunity as it is pulled back to the rising trendline at about the $35, $36 level. coming on air, you and i thought that rates might backup briefly so that might give an opportunity to buy a little bit lower. thank you so much for joining us for smart charts. joe: coming up, beijing might hit washington with its control of rare earth. we will be talking about more on the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
dominance of rare earths to hit back at washington. a rare chinese phrase that means, "don't say i didn't warn you." i think it is interesting they picked up on this short phrase that isn't used much but has previous uses that are on -- ominous. in 1962, it was just before china went into war against india. as soon as i heard that president xi jinping had visited the rare earth facility, i was like, this is happening again. it is reminiscent of what happened in 2010 with japan when they basically stopped exporting rare earth's. of editorials coming out of china and heading on this issue. daily commentary is saying. the u.s. risking losing rare
earth supplies, saying waging a trade war with china, the u.s. risks losing the materials that are vital to sustaining technological strength. romaine: they are not giving the stuff away for free, so if they stop getting into the u.s. or however, pursuant that would have some sort of -- presumably that would have some sort of impact. shery: they have suppliers and producers such as rare earth group. they had this ban on exports, prices just went up. as you can see, already, we are seeing rare earth production from china, exports coming down a little bit, the absolute value on the top and on. aboutmonth, they produce 4000 tons. bottom panel, you can see that year on year growth has been slowing and contracting.
again, u.s. the planning to name china as a currency manipulator. they refrained? sure. currency china as a manipulator thousand four changing the criteria and that is what they did this time around. basically cast a wider net and have more countries falling into the watchlist. vietnam, singapore, malaysia. shery: if they really wanted to name china a currency manipulator, they can still do it through the 1988 act which is more substantial. joe: for more on these stories, don't miss "daybreak australia" starting atk asia" 6:00 eastern. numbers for gdp for the u.s. out tomorrow. romaine: uber reports
♪ i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." muellercounsel robert leaves a foreboding warning about systematic efforts to interfere in the 2016 u.s. election. tech was their weapon. how well-prepared are we to prevent it from happening again? american companies are rushing to boost the supply of rare earth